It Doesn’t Matter What You Think
How we pick a primary candidate to run against Trump
Let me explain. The first question is what universe you live in.
Are you in the universe where the traditional Democratic party has some problems but is basically fine, on the right track? Fundamentally and significantly less bad than what the Republicans are doing? Where, while you personally might have really progressive values yourself, you see that in the end, the middle of the road, bipartisanship, the compromise solution is how things actually get done, and is how we will have to repair what Trump and his supporters have done to our country. The pre-Trump universe in which Republicans and Democrats differ on policy but fundamentally agree on what this country stands for, that we can and must return to. Let’s call this the establishment universe. If so, I think your candidate should be Warren (Biden is flat-out unelectable; Buttigeig has no business running for president).
Or are you in the universe that sees the Democratic party as part of the problem? That Democrats and Republican are essentially two sides of the same coin, and that that corporatist, neoliberal philosophy is harming democracy, freedom, threatening peace, and the environment? The universe where Democrats being ineffective and out of touch with their constituents were part of what got us into this mess in the first place, because they couldn’t bring themselves to run a truly progressive candidate that people were excited enough about? That sees the rot revealed by the alt-right goes right to the heart of the whole elite leadership of this country, always has, and can only be resolved by deep, structural change that will never be brought about by those who benefit from it? Let’s call this the anti-establishment universe. Obviously, then, your candidate is Sanders — perhaps not perfect, but by far the closest we’ve gotten to a truly viable anti-establishment candidate in our lives.
I have struggled with this choice because there are elements of both in me. I’ve been a huge fan of Bernie since he was my Representative, and supported him in 2016, but I wasn’t sure this time around. I do not want to relitigate 2016, no one does (well, except for Trump). And part of me feels like it just has to be a woman, as the antithesis to all Trump stands for. I adore Elizabeth Warren. I think she’d be a fantastic president. She’s smart, tough, fearless (that question for Justice Roberts, whew), has gravitas and experience and is still down home (someone you could absolutely have a beer with) and funny. Her values are in the right place; she listens and is responsive when she gets something wrong. She really is the mainstream, middle of the road choice. To think otherwise shows how far we’ve been dragged right and/or how misogynistic we are. If she were a man, she’d be it, no doubt about it. And she has threaded the needle of being (relatively) progressive and carefully not alienating the Democratic party establishment.
But guess what? It doesn’t matter what I think. If you are one of the huge swath of Americans who will vote for anyone who is not Trump (i.e., “Any Functioning Adult 2020”), it doesn’t matter what you think. It doesn’t matter what any of us think, because we will vote for whoever it is. It also doesn’t matter, of course, what the die-hard Trump supporters think, because they aren’t changing their minds. And with only those demographics voting, I hate to say it, but he gets re-elected.
What matters, the only thing that matters, is the people who don’t like Trump, but will either vote for him or simply not vote if the alternative is not someone they really support: which universe are they in? Are there more of these folks in the establishment universe, say, traditional anti-Trump Republicans or conservative independents who would vote for a mainstream candidate and who are afraid of the word ‘socialism’? This is the bet made by those supporting practically-Republican-Buttigieg or old-school-Biden or, who knows, maybe billionaire Bloomberg. (Would they go for a progressive woman? A gay man? Some, yes. Some, no.)
Or, are there more of these potential voters in the anti-establishment universe? People who feel like the system is broken, who are fed up with billionaires and politicians bankrolled by billionaires? More who feel that the Democratic establishment is part of the problem, that neoliberalism doesn’t work, and that the democracy we have is not fully a democracy for everybody? Who feel that with the climate crisis already well underway, we have no time for moderates, for the status quo, that our only chance of survival is immediate, radical change? As unpalatable as it may be to the Democratic party, if there are more of these folks, our best bet is undoubtedly Sanders.
It is not that the left is squabbling or being intentionally divisive, here. We still all feel like we will come together to get Trump out. The question is, honestly, how best to do that? Because it doesn’t matter what we think. It matters what everyone who might not vote otherwise thinks.
